Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

Just eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.

This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.

Jonathon Conner
Jonathon Conner

A digital strategist with over a decade of experience in IT consulting, specializing in cloud solutions and agile methodologies to drive innovation.