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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."